I gave an interview to Sky News barely 48 hours ago but already it feels out of date. That’s just how fast moving the market is, as I mention to Tom Macleod, the presenter: click HERE for video Sally Gethin on Sky News
In it he asks a pertinent question: why should large network airlines/flag carriers be first in line for state aid/bailout? Although I shared my insights spontaneously, in fact there is no simple cookie cutter answer. And it depends on the circumstances. On Friday, when I gave the interview, not all airlines would have necessarily wanted a massive subsidy – a large debt to be serviced many years ahead, binding them into servitude to federal/government conditions. Indeed many regional airlines might have seen a way forward on their own – a means to survive if the pandemic was successfully managed and borders remained open.
But fast forward to today and here in the UK particularly it’s a much worse picture. All airlines now are facing ruin. This might sound brutal, but this is because a group of four cabinet members (in the government), the so called ‘Quad’ committee forgot about them when deciding to introduce a hard lockdown. They forgot about the travel industry that needs support and saving. Or maybe they chose to ignore it. No wonder airlines and indeed airports and all the people reliant on the aviation supply chain feel forgotten. Abandoned. Ignored. Neglected. Angry even.
And when we all eventually come out of this pandemic, the same governments will trumpet the resilience of the travel industry. There will be no mourning for the graveyard of airline failures.
The picture is different across Europe – where many governments have taken a literally vested interest in their flag carriers and other domestic carriers. Around the world the picture varies from country to country.
The best placed markets are those with large domestic land mass like China, Russia, Australia and India. These regions have resilient airline operations (although Australia has closed its longhaul international borders till end of 2021). I believe the reason for their success is based on the reliance for connectivity across a vast continent constituting a single nation and regulation of a single border in most cases. Continents like Europe with tens of countries all with their myriad borders in different stages of quarantine and lockdown are a nightmare when it comes to airlines trying to survive.
The issue of Covid testing mirrors this fragmented disparate scenario. Quite simply covid testing at airports is all over the place. There is still no single uniform protocol or procedure in situ. There are plans for one, and it may materialise. But it may not. A bit like the success of a vaccine. It’s a huge variable.
The UK’s aviation sector today is waking up to a grim new reality. A bit of furlough support available but that is all. In essence they are alone. Knowing their lifespan is limited with no life support other than their own cash reserves available.
This is a ghost flight and it’s left the gate.
